2026年格隆汇“下注中国”十大核心资产之中际旭创

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the AI computing power explosion is a dual revolution of "computation + transmission," with optical modules evolving from auxiliary components to core infrastructure in AI computing power transmission [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The global AI server market is undergoing a structural shift from GPU dominance to a coexistence of various chip architectures, driven by lower cost pressures and decentralized supply chain risks associated with ASIC chips [3] - The demand for optical modules is expected to grow exponentially, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60% for the global high-speed optical module market from 2025 to 2027, potentially exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2027 [3] - The "East Data West Computing" project in China is projected to drive a demand of 18 billion yuan for optical modules by 2026, aligning with the development of the domestic digital economy [4] Group 2: Company Performance - From 2021 to 2024, the company's revenue surged from 7.7 billion yuan to 23.9 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 40%, and net profit increased from 900 million yuan to 5.3 billion yuan, achieving a CAGR of 55% [1][22] - The company is expected to double its revenue and net profit by 2026, benefiting from the explosive demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules [5][20] - The company's gross margin improved from 25.6% to 37.8% during the same period, demonstrating effective product structure upgrades [22] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company has evolved into a technology-driven system-level enterprise, with core barriers centered on "technological leadership + capacity assurance," supported by a strong customer base [7] - The company holds dual advantages in "rate iteration + silicon photonics technology," with 800G becoming the market mainstream and 1.6T products set for mass production in 2026 [7][8] - The company has a domestic market share exceeding 40% for 800G/1.6T products, with its production base in Tongling gradually releasing 1.6T capacity [7] Group 4: Product and Customer Strategy - The 800G optical module is expected to account for 71% of the company's revenue by 2026, with a projected 104% year-on-year growth driven by large-scale deployments from global cloud service providers [12][13] - The 1.6T optical module is anticipated to enter a peak production phase in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 110%, further solidifying the company's leading position in high-speed optical modules [15] - The company has established close partnerships with top global customers, enhancing its order stability and risk resilience [19][20] Group 5: Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 38 billion yuan, 70 billion yuan, and 100 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits reaching 10.2 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan in 2026 [26] - The company's financial performance exemplifies high growth and high profitability, with a gross margin expected to rise from 41.6% in 2025 to 47.7% by 2028 [24]