中国不接盘之后，美债压垮帝国的体面！三条路难道都是慢性死法？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure on the U.S. government due to rising debt and interest payments, highlighting the need for a reassessment of fiscal strategies as traditional buyers of U.S. debt become more cautious [5][16]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and Interest Dynamics - The U.S. debt has been steadily increasing, projected to exceed $38 trillion by 2025, with interest payments entering a new norm of over $1 trillion annually [7]. - The U.S. government faces a dilemma between paying interest and continuing to spend, indicating that its cash and borrowing capacity are not infinite [5][3]. - As major buyers of U.S. debt, including foreign central banks, become more cautious, the belief that the U.S. will never face financial issues is weakening [10][12]. Group 2: Global Market Reactions - Countries are diversifying their reserves, increasing gold holdings, and reducing reliance on U.S. debt, reflecting a shift in risk management strategies [10][14]. - China's holdings of U.S. debt have decreased to around $688.7 billion, while its gold reserves have been increasing for 13 consecutive months [12][31]. - The trend of de-dollarization is not an immediate collapse of the dollar system but a gradual shift towards a more multipolar financial landscape [29][35]. Group 3: U.S. Fiscal Strategies - The U.S. has three main strategies to address high debt and interest pressures: fiscal reform, tax increases, and spending cuts [18]. - Each strategy presents challenges, such as potential social unrest from spending cuts or backlash from tax increases [20]. - The option of "technical delay" through political negotiations may become problematic if market conditions do not support new debt issuance at manageable interest rates [23][25]. Group 4: Future Implications - The rising share of interest payments in the budget is squeezing other spending areas, leading to persistent high fiscal deficits, projected to remain at the trillion-dollar level for the 2025 fiscal year [23]. - The global shift towards non-dollar assets and diversified reserves indicates a long-term structural adjustment rather than an immediate crisis [27][37]. - The future of the U.S. financial system will depend on its ability to maintain fiscal discipline and adapt to a changing global economic environment [37].