主动权易主？中国800万吨美豆回购，期价回落背后的粮食安全布局

Core Insights - China placed an order for 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans, yet prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell nearly 7%, marking the worst monthly performance in five months, indicating a paradox where increased buying led to lower prices [1] Group 1: Historical Context - The trade dynamics shifted in 2018 when the Trump administration imposed tariffs on U.S. soybeans, prompting Chinese buyers to turn to South America, particularly Brazil, which saw a 16% year-on-year increase in soybean exports to China by 2025 [3] - Brazil's market share in China's soybean imports surged from approximately 2% thirty years ago to about 71% by 2025, effectively replacing the U.S. in this market [3] Group 2: Recent Developments - In the fall of 2025, Chinese commercial buyers returned to the U.S. market, with stable and continuous orders starting in October, including a commitment to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans before January 2026 [6] - The first shipments of U.S. soybeans to China since May 2025 began on November 24, 2025, signaling a recovery in trade flows [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the renewed orders, soybean futures prices in Chicago dropped about 7% in December 2025 due to market concerns over the lack of a formal long-term agreement and uncertainties regarding the fulfillment of existing purchase commitments [8] - Increased soybean production expectations from Brazil, along with Argentina's temporary removal of export tariffs on soybean meal and oil, added downward pressure on global prices [8] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - China has diversified its soybean supply sources, reducing reliance on any single supplier, which allows for more flexible purchasing strategies based on bilateral relations [8] - A report from Goldman Sachs indicated that China aims to enhance its food self-sufficiency and reduce its dependence on soybean imports from about 90% to below 30% over the next decade [10] Group 5: Domestic Implications - U.S. farmers expressed mixed feelings about the orders from China, as falling futures prices overshadowed the positive news of increased orders [10] - The Chinese government emphasized its commitment to open cooperation in agricultural trade, highlighting the importance of specific buying operations [10] Group 6: Demand Management - From 2021 to 2024, China's annual soybean consumption decreased by approximately 15 million tons due to policies promoting lower protein feed formulations, which reduced the rigid demand for imported soybeans [12] - The return of Chinese buyers to the U.S. market for 8 million tons of soybeans reflects a complex backdrop of abundant global soybean supply and changing domestic demand structures in China [12]