供应趋紧驱动铜价创16年来最大年度涨幅后，2026开年再度走高

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are recovering in 2026 amid tightening market supply, with LME copper futures rising by 0.63% to $12,543.70 per ton, following a significant 42% increase in 2025, marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [1] Supply Concerns - Major copper mines faced disruptions in 2025, including a seismic event at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, reducing its production guidance from 520,000-580,000 tons to 370,000-420,000 tons [3] - The El Teniente mine in Chile experienced a collapse due to an earthquake, leading to a production cut of 300,000 tons, approximately 11% lower than previous expectations [3] - Freeport-McMoRan temporarily halted operations at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a landslide, triggering a force majeure and a 35% reduction in its 2026 production guidance, equating to a loss of about 270,000 tons of copper [3] - Anticipation of potential tariffs on copper by the Trump administration in 2026 has led to increased shipments of metals, including copper, to the U.S., raising concerns about global copper inventories dropping to critical low levels [3] Demand Growth - The surge in AI infrastructure is driving demand for copper, with data centers becoming a significant consumer of the metal. Morgan Stanley forecasts that copper consumption in data centers will reach 500,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 740,000 tons in 2026, contributing 0.6 percentage points to global copper demand growth [4] - By 2027, data center copper consumption is expected to hit 1 million tons (2.8% of total demand), and further increase to 1.3 million tons (3.3% of total demand) by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 40% [4] - The combination of tight supply conditions and rising demand is expected to support copper price increases [4] Price Forecasts - JPMorgan projects that LME copper prices will reach $12,500 per ton in Q2 2026, with an average price of around $12,075 per ton for the entire year [4] - Citigroup analysts express confidence in rising copper prices before 2026, supported by improving fundamentals and macroeconomic conditions, predicting a 2.5% growth in global terminal copper consumption driven by low interest rates and U.S. fiscal expansion [4]