历史正在重演？复盘黄金两次“史诗级见顶”后，发现主力撤退的三大共同信号

Core Insights - Despite a general decline in precious metals like gold and silver on the last trading day of 2025, their overall performance for the year was remarkable, with gold achieving its strongest annual gain in 46 years and silver and platinum both more than doubling in value, marking a record year [2][3] Group 1: Gold Performance - Gold surged approximately 65% in 2025, marking its best annual performance since 1979, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical tensions, strong central bank purchases, and inflows into ETFs [2][3] - On December 29, 2025, gold prices broke through the $4,500 mark, reaching a historical high of $4,549 before experiencing a rapid decline [3] - The price of gold faced its most severe drop since 2013 on October 21, 2025, after hitting a historical high of $4,380, eventually stabilizing around $3,887 [3] Group 2: Silver and Platinum Performance - Silver's annual increase exceeded 147%, marking its strongest yearly performance ever, significantly outpacing gold [2] - Platinum saw an annual increase of over 122%, also the best on record, while palladium rose more than 75%, achieving its best performance in 15 years [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - As precious metal prices reached new highs and the new year approached, profit-taking pressure accumulated, leading to increased volatility in the market and a shift in investor sentiment from aggressive buying to caution [4] - The significant fluctuations in precious metal prices serve as a warning for a market typically based on stability and cautious optimism, indicating that accumulated gains could quickly evaporate [4] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical patterns show that gold has often experienced significant corrections following rapid price increases, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant [5][6] - Analysts maintain a generally bullish outlook for gold and silver in 2026, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and strong industrial demand [17] - Predictions indicate that gold prices may range between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce in 2026, with potential to reach $5,000 under certain conditions [18] - Silver is expected to outperform gold in percentage terms in 2026, with prices projected to reach between $85 and $95, driven by strong industrial demand and a tightening supply backdrop [20][21]