Prediction: Robinhood Stock Is Going to Plunge in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets experienced significant stock growth in 2025, but its future performance may decline in 2026 due to high valuation and unsustainable revenue growth drivers [1][2][3] Revenue Growth - In Q3 2025, Robinhood's transaction revenue reached $730 million, marking a 129% year-over-year increase, largely driven by a 339% surge in cryptocurrency revenue to $268 million [6][5] - The company's crypto revenue is highly volatile, having previously dropped over 50% in a six-month period from Q4 2024 to Q2 2025 [7][9] New Revenue Streams - Robinhood introduced prediction markets in partnership with Kalshi, allowing clients to bet on various events, which contributed to stock price increases in 2025 [13] - However, the prediction market generated only $115 million in annualized revenue during Q3, representing a mere 2.5% of the estimated total revenue of $4.5 billion for 2025 [14][15] Valuation Concerns - Robinhood's stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 25.5, significantly higher than its historical average of 11.2 since going public in 2021 [16] - To justify its current valuation, Robinhood would need to generate substantially more revenue, with a potential decline of 55% in stock price required to align with its long-term average P/S ratio [18] Future Outlook - The combination of volatile crypto revenue, the limited impact of the prediction markets, and the high stock valuation could lead to a significant correction in Robinhood's stock price in 2026 [19]