宏观策略2026观察：在分化的世界里，寻找共振的节奏

Group 1 - Hong Kong stock market opened the year with a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index up by 2.76% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 4%. Wallen Technology, the first GPU stock in Hong Kong, surged over 75% on its debut. The semiconductor sector saw notable gains, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 9% and SMIC increasing over 5% [1] - New York silver prices increased by 5% to $74.14 per ounce, while gold prices surpassed $4,400 per ounce, rising by 1.38% [2] - The National Film Administration reported that the total box office for 2025 is projected to be 51.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.95%, exceeding 2024 by 9.3 billion yuan. The 2025 New Year box office exceeded 5.3 billion yuan, marking an eight-year high [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 suggests a "K-shaped" economic recovery in the U.S., where sectors like AI investment thrive while low-income consumer spending remains weak. This uneven economic landscape will influence Federal Reserve decisions [7][8] - The expectation of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is based on a softening job market and moderate inflation data, aimed at providing relief to an imbalanced economy [8] - The macro backdrop sets the tone for asset allocation, with U.S. stocks expected to remain supported but with increased volatility. Opportunities may shift from large tech stocks to smaller tech themes, while healthcare and financial sectors may also present value [9] Group 3 - In China, 2026 marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a positive macro narrative emerging. Policies are being activated, showing unexpected economic resilience [10] - A key positive signal is the potential turnaround in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to narrow its decline and possibly turn positive, indicating a fundamental improvement in the corporate profit environment [11] - The macro policy is anticipated to maintain a supportive stance, with monetary policy having room for rate cuts and structural tools, while fiscal policy may see increased efforts [11] Group 4 - The outlook for A-shares in 2026 indicates a shift from valuation-driven to a dual-driven approach, where both valuation and earnings recovery will drive market performance [12][13] - Earnings support is expected from three main areas: new productive forces becoming growth engines, "anti-involution" policies improving competition and profit levels in midstream industries, and resilient overseas demand maintaining reasonable gross margins for export-oriented companies [14][15][16] - The path for A-shares is expected to be upward with clear verification windows around the second quarter of 2026 [17] Group 5 - Investment opportunities in 2026 are predicted to spread across various sectors rather than being concentrated in one area, with a focus on technology growth, cyclical manufacturing, and consumer recovery [18][19][20][21] - The investment style may transition from small-cap active to a balance between small and large caps, eventually leading to a return of large-cap value [22] - The macro environment is characterized by structural opportunities rather than a broad-based bull market, requiring investors to adopt a nuanced strategy [23][24]