Tesla(US:TSLA) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-02 11:26Core Viewpoint - Tesla is expected to report a decline in fourth-quarter deliveries for 2025, with estimates suggesting approximately 440,900 vehicles, representing an 11% year-over-year decrease [1]. Group 1: Delivery Forecasts - The anticipated fourth-quarter delivery figure of 440,900 vehicles is lower than the previous year's performance, indicating a downward trend in sales for the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. - Analyst predictions for Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries are even more pessimistic, estimating around 422,850 vehicles, which reflects a 15% year-over-year decline [1]. - For the entire year of 2025, the expected delivery volume is projected to be 1.6408 million vehicles, a nearly 8% decrease from 1.789 million vehicles in 2024 [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - In 2024, Tesla's total deliveries were 1.7892 million vehicles, marking a slight decline of 1.07%, which was the first annual decrease in over a decade [1]. - If the 2025 forecasts are accurate, it would mark the second consecutive year of declining annual delivery volumes for Tesla, with a significant increase in the rate of decline [1]. Group 3: Market Influences - The weak sales forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 is attributed to the expiration of the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit in September, which previously offered buyers up to $7,500 in incentives [1]. - The surge in sales during the third quarter, driven by a buying rush before the tax credit expiration, has likely depleted demand for the fourth quarter [1]. - Wall Street analysts have significantly revised their delivery expectations for Tesla in 2026, lowering estimates from over 3 million vehicles to approximately 1.8 million vehicles [1].