AMZN stock forecast: Bull, bear, baseline predictions and key drivers explained – will Amazon stock soar or crash by 2030?

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) has experienced significant growth since its IPO in 1997, with shares increasing over 309,000% and currently ranking among the "Magnificent 7" in market capitalization [1][10]. E-commerce Dominance - Amazon controls approximately 40% of US e-commerce sales, despite online retail representing only 15% of total retail sales, indicating a strong competitive edge [4]. Amazon Web Services (AWS) - AWS is the most profitable segment for Amazon, generating $107.6 billion in 2024, and is expected to remain a crucial contributor to earnings, even as competitors like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud grow [4][11]. Advertising Growth - Amazon's advertising revenue reached $56.2 billion in 2024, nearly doubling from the previous three years, driven by Prime Video ads and NFL Thursday Night Football, positioning it as the third-largest digital ad business [4]. Stock Price Predictions - Bull Case: If AWS continues to expand and e-commerce improves, analysts predict a stock price of $431 per share by 2030, an increase of 86.7% from current levels, with operating profits potentially reaching $150 billion [6]. - Bear Case: In a scenario of increased competition and stagnant profits, the stock could drop to $77 per share, a decline of 66.6% [7]. - Baseline Case: The baseline forecast estimates a stock price of $250 per share by 2030, reflecting an 8% gain, with projected revenues of $1.153 trillion and net income around $100 billion [8][13]. Key Drivers for Future Growth - Amazon's future stock trajectory will depend on its ability to maintain e-commerce dominance, protect AWS market share, and grow its advertising business amid increasing competition and normalizing margins [9][13].