站上9万美元关口！比特币新年喜迎“开门红” 市场多空博弈加剧

Group 1 - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility in 2025, reaching a peak of $93,000 at the beginning of the year, dropping to $74,500 in April, and rebounding to a new high of $126,200 in October before giving back most of its gains [1] - Analysts are divided on Bitcoin's long-term outlook, with some believing it has peaked and the risk of a bear market is rising, while others see limited downside and potential for new highs in 2026 [1] - The traditional "four-year cycle" may be weakening, with factors such as friendly regulation, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, and institutional demand altering previous price patterns [1] Group 2 - On a monthly basis, Bitcoin maintains an upward structure, with previous corrections finding support near the 20-month exponential moving average (approximately $88,000), which is a critical support level [1] - If Bitcoin falls below this moving average and breaches the April low of $74,500, the upward structure will be compromised, potentially leading to a price retreat towards the $50,000 region [1] - Conversely, if Bitcoin rebounds from the short-term moving average and reclaims the psychological level of $100,000, bullish momentum could challenge the $126,200 high again, with potential targets of $141,200 to $178,600 [1] Group 3 - The weekly outlook appears bearish, with the moving averages potentially forming a "death cross" for the first time since early 2022 [2] - Historical patterns suggest that if a rebound is hindered near the moving averages, Bitcoin may repeatedly test the $74,500 support level, increasing the risk of a breakdown and possibly leading to a prolonged consolidation phase [2] - The volatility of Bitcoin is impacting capital markets, with Strategy (MSTR.US), led by Saylor, expected to report billions in unrealized losses due to a 24% decline in Bitcoin prices in Q4, contrasting sharply with a $2.8 billion profit in the previous quarter [2] Group 4 - Saylor's personal wealth significantly declined in 2025, dropping approximately 40% to around $3.8 billion, while Strategy's enterprise value is nearing its Bitcoin holdings value, indicating a decrease in market premium for the "coin-based" strategy [3] - As the new year begins, risk assets show short-term recovery, with Strategy's stock price rising 5.2% to about $160 and Bitcoin surpassing $90,000 [3] - Analysts caution that due to weak technicals, accounting rules amplifying volatility, and uncertainty regarding the cycle's effectiveness, Bitcoin and related stocks may continue to exhibit high volatility, with $74,500 and $100,000 being key levels for market dynamics [3]