注意！2025/2026榨季糖市出现新信号

Core Viewpoint - The global sugar market is expected to experience a supply surplus of 7.4 million tons in the 2025/2026 season, marking a ten-year high, with a contrasting situation in the domestic market where both domestic production and high import levels exert pressure on sugar prices [1][3]. Global Sugar Market Overview - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season reached 39.9 million tons as of mid-November, a year-on-year increase of 1.13%. Despite lower yields due to reduced rainfall, the sugar-to-ethanol ratio improved to 51.12%, offsetting the impact of lower yields [3]. - India's sugarcane minimum purchase price was raised to 3,550 rupees per ton, leading to an increase in planting area to 5.724 million hectares and an expected sugar production of 30.95 million tons, with a 27.69% year-on-year increase in production [3]. - Thailand's sugar production is projected to rise to 11 million tons, driven by high sugarcane purchase prices and increased planting area [3]. - Global sugar consumption is estimated at 177.8 million tons, while production is expected to be 185.3 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 7.4 million tons [3]. Domestic Sugar Market Dynamics - China's domestic sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is projected at 11.8 million tons, with significant increases in Guangxi and Yunnan provinces. However, Guangdong's production is slightly down due to typhoon impacts [5]. - High import levels are evident, with Brazil exporting 4.3718 million tons of sugar to China from January to November, and an estimated total import of 4.9 million tons for the year. The cost advantage of imported sugar is significant, with costs approximately 3,380 yuan per ton lower than domestic prices [5]. - The domestic sugar consumption structure shows a strong industrial demand but weak consumer demand, with industrial consumption rising while beverage and dairy production has declined [5]. Key Factors to Monitor - The sugar-ethanol ratio is a critical factor affecting sugar production, particularly in Brazil, where the ethanol production capacity is expanding. A drop in the sugar-ethanol ratio could lead to reduced sugar production [7]. - India's export policy will significantly influence sugar prices, with a potential increase in exportable sugar if domestic prices fall below export parity [7]. - Long-term trends indicate that declining sugar prices in Europe may lead to reduced production in the region, with a projected decrease in sugar beet planting area and production [8].