商品基准指数“重置”在即，面临抛售风险，金银开年“冲高回落”

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver are experiencing volatility as traders assess the potential market impact of the upcoming commodity benchmark index weight adjustments, which may lead to significant selling pressure from passive funds [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 2, gold initially rose by 1.9% but closed with a modest gain of 0.2% at $4,328.35 per ounce, while silver peaked at a 4% increase before settling at $72.61 per ounce, up 1.3% [1]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight reset will result in over $6 billion in gold futures and more than $5 billion in silver futures being sold during a five-day roll period from January 8 to 14 [4][5]. Group 2: Selling Pressure - TD Securities warns that approximately 13% of the total open interest in the Comex silver market will be sold in the next two weeks, potentially leading to a significant downward price revaluation [4]. - The weight adjustment will see silver futures' index weight drop from 9% to just below 4% by 2026, necessitating the liquidation of over $5 billion in positions [5]. Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Predictions - Historical data indicates that gold prices typically rise by an average of 4.6% during the last ten trading days of the year and the first twenty trading days of the new year, with an 80% probability of price increases [6]. - Despite the seasonal bullish trend, the substantial technical selling pressure from index rebalancing may counteract these seasonal gains, particularly for silver, which faces greater selling pressure than in previous years [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Major investment banks remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, anticipating further price increases, especially with expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [7]. - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce, citing factors such as central bank purchases, loose monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions as key drivers [7].