2026能源展望：油价承压、气价趋缓，转型步入深水区？

Core Insights - The global energy market is expected to undergo a multi-dimensional restructuring by 2026, with oil demand likely plateauing and a significant LNG supply wave led by North America and the Middle East [1][6] Oil Market Dynamics - The global oil market is projected to enter a rebalancing phase characterized by inventory accumulation and price pressure due to a combination of accelerating supply growth and weak demand [2] - IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to reach 104.8 million barrels per day in 2026, with a modest year-on-year growth of only 0.8% [2] - Developed economies are experiencing structural declines in oil demand, with Japan at a multi-decade low and the U.S. demand stagnating [2] - Non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, are expected to drive demand growth, with China continuing to be a key engine for oil demand in the Asia-Pacific region [2] Supply Side Pressures - The supply side is expected to see significant contributions from non-OPEC+ countries, with IEA predicting an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day from these nations in 2026 [4] - Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are identified as major drivers of non-OECD oil supply growth, with Brazil's production expected to rise by 200,000 barrels per day to 4 million barrels per day [4] - The efficiency improvements in U.S. shale oil production will provide stability in supply even in a low oil price environment [4] - Goldman Sachs anticipates Brent crude oil prices to average $56 per barrel in 2026, while WTI is expected to average $52 per barrel [5] Natural Gas Market Trends - A significant LNG supply wave led by North America and the Middle East is expected to reshape the natural gas market, transitioning it from a seller's market to a buyer's market [6][9] - IEA predicts a 7% growth in global LNG supply in 2026, reaching 475 million tons, with the U.S. being the primary contributor [8] - The Asia-Pacific region is projected to be the main driver of natural gas demand growth, with an expected increase of over 4% in 2026 [8] - European natural gas demand is forecasted to decline by 2%, while North American demand growth is expected to fall below 1% [8] Energy Transition Developments - The energy transition is characterized by the green transformation of power systems and a pragmatic shift by traditional energy companies [11] - Renewable energy is expected to surpass coal as the largest source of electricity globally by mid-2025, marking a historic shift in energy structure [11] - Traditional oil companies are under dual pressure from oversupply and stringent emission reduction commitments, prompting them to explore pragmatic transition paths [13] - Companies like ExxonMobil are focusing on carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies as a core part of their low-carbon business strategy [13] - European oil companies are recalibrating their energy transition strategies, with BP and Shell shifting focus towards natural gas and optimizing their investment portfolios [14]