白捡钱？“预测市场”Polymarket上押注“基督复活失败”，年化收益率可达5.5%！

Core Insights - The emerging prediction market Polymarket has gained attention for a peculiar bet on whether "Jesus Christ will return to Earth in 2025," which has attracted approximately $3.3 million in funding over the past year, with most investors betting against the return [1] - The bet's peak popularity in April allowed investors who wagered against the return to achieve a 5.5% annualized return before fees, surpassing the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds, typically seen as a safe investment benchmark [1] - As 2025 approaches, Polymarket announced the victory of the "no" camp on January 1, and new bets for Jesus's return by the end of 2026 have opened, with a probability of only 2%, suggesting a potential return of over 5700% for those betting on "yes" [1][3] Summary of Prediction Markets - Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi are viewed as innovative platforms that combine high-risk betting with collective intelligence to provide probabilities for significant real-world events, such as election outcomes or war outbreaks [2] - However, these platforms are also filled with bizarre contracts, including bets on movie performances and social media activity, which some critics argue distract from the value of genuine predictive markets [2] - The peculiar bet on Jesus's return has sparked discussions about its purpose, with some users speculating it may serve as a tax loss strategy, while others criticize it as a trivial market [2] Historical Context - The application of secular odds to religious matters is not without historical precedent, as Blaise Pascal's "Pascal's Wager" from the 17th century used probability calculations as a rationale for belief in God [2] - The ongoing speculation about the Messiah's return has deep roots in Christian history, despite biblical warnings that the exact timing is unknown [2]