全球“股债商”创下2009年来最强牛市后，华尔街带着高预期开启2026年

Group 1 - The market has continued its upward momentum from the end of last year, with global stock markets rising and investor confidence remaining high, driven by factors such as the AI boom, easing inflation, and supportive central bank policies [1] - The synchronized performance across various asset classes, including stocks and bonds, is notable, with credit spreads narrowing and commodity prices rising despite easing inflationary pressures [1] - The financial environment is approaching its loosest level since 2025, indicating rising valuations and a consensus among investors regarding economic growth and AI expectations [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of the past year's strong performance, with some experts warning that the factors driving returns may not remain constant [2] - The strong performance of the stock market has contributed to a 18% return in the US stock market and a 23% increase in global stock markets, with government bonds also rising nearly 7% due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [5] - The volatility in the market has significantly decreased, with the bond market experiencing its largest annual decline in volatility since the financial crisis, and investment-grade bond spreads narrowing for the third consecutive year [5][8] Group 3 - There is a prevailing optimism among asset allocators regarding economic growth and policy support, which they believe can offset high valuations [9] - The traditional 60/40 investment strategy has seen a resurgence, with a return of 14%, while risk parity strategies have achieved a 19% increase, marking the best annual performance since 2020 [8] - Despite the overall positive sentiment, there are warnings about potential inflationary pressures, particularly from rising energy prices, which could reverse recent progress [6]