王杨：黄金跌破4274（959）概率多大？

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price trend is characterized by a significant decline followed by a phase of consolidation, indicating weak bullish momentum and continued bearish control [1]. Group 1: Current Trend Characteristics - Trend Attribute: The market is in a consolidation phase after a sharp decline from 4550 (domestic gold price 1025 CNY/gram), with subsequent rebounds failing to break key resistance levels at 4403/4402, indicating weak bullish strength and strong bearish dominance [1]. - Key Range: Prices are confined within a wide oscillation range of 4274 (low) to 4403 (high), with rapid sell-offs occurring at the upper boundary, reflecting a typical "continuation pattern" of decline [1]. - Volume and Rhythm: The rebounds lack sustained upward momentum, while declines are swift and substantial, suggesting a market bias towards short-selling at highs, with bottom-fishing being primarily speculative [1]. Group 2: Possible Future Trends and Probabilities - High Probability Trend (60%): A breakdown below the lower boundary of the consolidation at 4274 USD/oz (domestic gold price 959 CNY/gram) is likely, which would open new downside potential, possibly testing levels around 4200 or lower [1]. - Maintaining Wide Oscillation (30% Probability): If the support at 4274 (domestic gold price 959 CNY/gram) holds and the resistance at 4403 (domestic gold price 989 CNY/gram) is not breached, gold will likely continue to oscillate within the 4274-4403 (959-989 CNY/gram) range, reflecting market indecision while awaiting key data [5]. - Low Probability Trend (10%): A breakout above the upper boundary could initiate a rebound, contingent on unexpected bullish fundamentals, such as escalating geopolitical tensions or dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, requiring volume confirmation for validity [5].