“预测市场”Polymarket上押注“基督复活失败”，年化收益率达5.5%

Core Insights - The emerging prediction market Polymarket has gained attention for a peculiar bet on whether "Jesus Christ will return to Earth in 2025," which has attracted approximately $3.3 million in funding over the past year, with most investors betting against the return [1] - The bet's popularity peaked in April, yielding a 5.5% annualized return for those who wagered against the return, surpassing the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds, typically seen as a safe investment benchmark [1] - As 2025 approaches, Polymarket declared the "no" camp as the winner on January 1, and new bets for Jesus's return by the end of 2026 have opened, with a mere 2% probability, suggesting a potential return of over 5700% for the "yes" side [1] Group 1 - Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi are viewed as innovative platforms that combine high-risk betting with collective intelligence to provide probabilities for significant real-world events, such as election outcomes and war outbreaks [2] - Despite serious discussions, these platforms are filled with bizarre contracts, including bets on movie performances and social media activity, which some argue distract from the true value of predictive markets [3] - The concept of applying secular odds to religious matters has historical roots, as seen in Blaise Pascal's "Pascal's Wager," which suggests that the probability game has continued into the present [3] Group 2 - The extreme low-probability speculative behavior observed in these markets is not surprising, as people are known to buy lottery tickets despite astronomical odds, indicating that markets will always find ways to turn uncertainty into speculative opportunities [4]