美国扛不住贸易战了？36万亿债务压顶，关税反噬让通胀失控，中美博弈真相远超想象

Group 1 - The U.S. is shifting from a stance of "maximum pressure" to proposing tariff pauses and cooperation discussions with China due to unsustainable federal debt levels, which have surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments exceeding military spending [1][3] - In 2024, U.S. debt interest payments reached $1.1 trillion, surpassing defense budget for the first time, indicating a significant shift in fiscal priorities [1][3] - The trade war initiated during Trump's second term has inadvertently fueled U.S. inflation, with tariffs on China reaching 145% by April 2025, leading to increased domestic costs and a rise in consumer inflation expectations to 6.7%, the highest since 1981 [1][3] Group 2 - U.S. companies are facing increased operational costs due to rising raw material prices and supply chain disruptions, with major firms like Tesla and Apple increasing investments in China rather than withdrawing [3][4] - The U.S. government has had to provide $30 billion in subsidies to farmers affected by trade disruptions, further exacerbating fiscal deficits [3][4] - China's export controls on rare earth materials, crucial for U.S. defense and technology sectors, pose significant risks to American defense contractors, with 78% of production lines facing potential shutdowns [3][4] Group 3 - China's reliance on U.S. exports has significantly decreased, with its export share to the U.S. dropping from 21.2% to 14% over eight years, while increasing trade with ASEAN and Mexico [4][6] - The technological landscape is shifting, with China making significant advancements in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, while the U.S. struggles with supply chain issues [6][7] - The relationship between the U.S. and China is now characterized as a "strategic stalemate," with both countries adjusting their strategies in response to changing power dynamics [6][7]