DRAM价格，还要涨！

Core Insights - The global memory market is expected to remain in a state of supply-demand imbalance through 2026, driven by high investments from cloud service providers (CSPs) in AI infrastructure, leading to increased product prices [1] Group 1: DRAM and NAND Flash Market Dynamics - DRAM supply is projected to increase by 15% to 20% in 2026, while demand is expected to grow faster, at 20% to 25% [1] - NAND flash supply is forecasted to rise by 13% to 18%, with demand increasing by 18% to 23% [1] - The consumption of DRAM and NAND flash in the server sector is anticipated to surge by 40% to 50% in 2026 due to increased investments in AI training and inference by major cloud platforms [1] Group 2: DDR4 Market Trends - The rapid reduction of traditional DRAM production lines, particularly DDR4, is a key factor contributing to memory shortages [2] - By the second half of 2026, the wafer production share of DDR4 from major suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix is expected to drop to single digits, significantly reducing market supply [2] - Despite a transition to DDR5, DDR4 prices are expected to remain high due to a projected supply shortfall of about 10% compared to demand in 2026 [2] Group 3: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Impact - The increasing share of HBM in high-end production is exacerbating memory supply pressures, with HBM3E capacity already fully booked [3] - The price of Samsung's 64GB DDR5 RDIMM memory has risen from approximately $265 in Q3 2025 to around $450 in Q4 2025, with expectations of reaching nearly $480 in Q1 2026 [3] - Traditional DRAM prices have surged by nearly 50% or more in Q4 2025, with this upward trend expected to continue into the first half of 2026 [3] Group 4: NAND Flash Supply Challenges - The expansion of NAND flash capacity is constrained, with new production facilities expected to contribute significantly only by Q2 2026 [5] - The demand for enterprise SSDs is rapidly increasing, particularly for large-capacity drives (128TB to 256TB), driven by AI inference business growth [5] - NAND wafer prices are projected to have surged by approximately 95% to 100% in Q4 2025, with ongoing supply shortages expected to persist into 2026 [6] Group 5: Memory Module Manufacturers' Challenges - The tight supply situation is forcing memory module manufacturers to adopt limited shipping strategies, prioritizing strategic customer orders [7] - The market is expected to see a polarization, where some manufacturers secure stable chip supplies while others face ongoing shortages [7] - The AI business is anticipated to be a core growth driver in 2026, benefiting companies that have established AI-related product lines [7]