全球货币风云突变，美元欧元轮番动荡，人民币汇率是反攻还是波动

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate in 2026, highlighting the complex dynamics influenced by global economic conditions and domestic factors. Group 1: RMB Performance - The RMB has shown strength against the USD, appreciating nearly 4% throughout the year, reaching close to 6.99 by year-end, driven by China's economic fundamentals [3][8]. - Conversely, the RMB depreciated approximately 10% against the Euro, leading to increased costs for those exchanging RMB for Euros [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Supporting RMB - China's impressive trade surplus in 2025 has contributed significantly to the stability of the RMB, with substantial foreign exchange inflows bolstering its position [8]. - Continuous foreign investment in the Chinese market and a resilient performance of the Shanghai Composite Index have attracted international investors, further supporting the RMB [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 remains uncertain, with potential for both continued depreciation of the USD and possible rebounds, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decisions [10]. - The sustainability of China's trade surplus and the global demand environment will be critical in determining the stability of the RMB exchange rate [10][12]. - Predictions suggest that while the RMB may maintain an advantage against the USD, fluctuations are expected to become the norm rather than a steady trend [12]. Group 4: Currency Exchange Decisions - Families and small businesses face challenges in currency exchange decisions amid global financial volatility, with some opting to wait for favorable rates while others are forced to pay more for Euros [15]. - For those with currency needs, a gradual exchange strategy is recommended rather than attempting to time the market, emphasizing the importance of long-term planning [15].