委内瑞拉石油困局中的中国棋局：百亿投资能否撬动千亿桶油藏？

Core Insights - Venezuela, once wealthy from oil, is now struggling between recovery and turmoil, with the world's largest proven oil reserves of approximately 47.3 billion tons [1] - Oil production in Venezuela plummeted by 78% since 2010, but signs of recovery emerged in 2021, with production expected to reach 53 million tons in 2024, growing at about 9% annually [1] - Chinese investment has been pivotal in this recovery, as Chinese companies are the only ones willing to invest after Western firms withdrew [1] Chinese Investment - China plans to invest over $1 billion in developing two oil fields, aiming to increase daily production from 12,000 barrels to 60,000 barrels by the end of 2026 [3] - Since 2019, China has provided approximately $50 billion in loans to Venezuela through oil-for-loan agreements, with over $8 billion in oil and gas investments expected in 2024 [3] - The cooperation model between China and Venezuela includes a "production sharing" agreement, allowing transactions in RMB, which aids in the internationalization of the currency [3] Geopolitical Risks - U.S. military presence in the Caribbean is increasing, with a fleet dispatched to the South Caribbean region, posing direct sanctions and military threats to Chinese investments in Venezuela [4] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on all countries importing Venezuelan oil, complicating the investment landscape for Chinese companies [4] Financial Network - As of April 2025, the China Development Bank has provided approximately $165 billion in financing support to over 260 projects across 21 Latin American countries [4] - The share of RMB in cross-border settlements in Latin America reached 14% in 2024, a nearly fivefold increase since 2019 [4] - Venezuela's proposal to pay suppliers in RMB is a strategy to circumvent U.S. sanctions and further the internationalization of the currency [4] Economic Special Zones - Venezuela is focusing on economic special zones to reduce dependence on oil, with the Economic Special Zone Organization Law enacted in June 2022, inspired by Chinese practices [6] - The establishment of these zones allows for tax incentives and temporary processing permits, strengthening the bilateral relationship and providing a stable political environment for Chinese energy interests [6] - China's investment strategy in Venezuela, including daily imports of 463,000 barrels of oil and over $1 billion in oil field investments, forms a robust foundation for its energy strategy in Latin America [6]