「UNForex下周展望」美元与宏观数据主导下周贵金属走势

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is expected to be influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar and upcoming economic data, with gold likely to maintain a high-level consolidation and silver exhibiting more pronounced volatility [9] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - Key US economic data, including December non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing index, and housing sales, will be released next week, affecting market expectations for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions, which in turn will directly or indirectly impact precious metals [2] - Strong economic data may suppress safe-haven demand for precious metals in the short term, while weak data could boost gold and silver prices [2] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - In an uncertain macro environment with limited dollar fluctuations, gold is likely to continue its high-level consolidation, with key support around $4,380–$4,400 and resistance at the psychological level of $4,500–$4,520 [3] - Short-term volatility is expected, but the medium to long-term trend remains bullish [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is more sensitive to dollar and macro data fluctuations, showing higher volatility this week, which may continue into the next week [4] - Support for silver is noted around $75–$76, with resistance near $78 [4] Group 4: Capital Flows - While macro data and dollar trends are key short-term factors, capital behavior remains the core underlying logic for precious metal prices, with capital inflows and structural adjustments potentially creating short-term volatility [5] Group 5: Technical Indicators - Daily and weekly technical indicators show that both gold and silver are above major moving averages, with short-term RSI close to high levels but not yet in the overbought zone, suggesting that prices may maintain a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal [6] Group 6: Geopolitical Risks - Global geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine situation, Middle East conflicts, and US-Latin America relations, continue to affect market sentiment, with risk events potentially leading to short-term inflows into gold and silver, amplifying price volatility [7] Group 7: Trading Recommendations - Traders should focus on short-term opportunities around the release of macro data, while considering support and resistance levels for operations [8] - Long-term investors should pay attention to the interplay between dollar trends and capital flows to assess the likelihood of trend continuation [8]