从美国经济基本面来看，美元存在严重高估，严重高估的美元会在一个特定的历史时期实现“自我重置”，这个“重置”的时间点不会拖太久

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the apparent contradiction between the strong performance of the US dollar and the troubling economic indicators within the United States, suggesting that the current high valuation of the dollar may not be sustainable in the long term [3][19]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024, surpassing the defense budget [5][6]. - The ISM Manufacturing PMI index indicates that the US manufacturing sector is contracting, remaining below the critical threshold of 50 for an extended period [9]. - The current dollar exchange rate is considered overvalued when assessed through purchasing power parity (PPP), leading to a mismatch between prices in the US and other currencies [11]. Group 2: Debt and Interest Payments - The increasing interest payments on national debt create a cycle where higher interest rates lead to greater debt accumulation, resembling a Ponzi scheme [6][8]. - By 2027, a significant amount of low-interest debt will mature, necessitating the issuance of new debt at higher interest rates, which will dramatically increase interest expenses [13][17]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Central banks globally are purchasing gold at record levels, indicating a lack of confidence in the dollar's value [8]. - The rising prices of assets like Bitcoin and gold are seen as a response to declining trust in the dollar, rather than an increase in their intrinsic value [15][19]. Group 4: Future Projections - The article predicts that the current strong dollar, supported by high interest rates, is unsustainable and will likely lead to a significant correction by 2027 [17][19]. - A potential economic reset may occur, where the dollar's value is reassessed, impacting various asset classes and the overall economy [19].