若不出意外，2026年房价将出现4大趋势，买房人要注意

Core Insights - The real estate market in 2026 is expected to exhibit four major trends, indicating a shift from the previous notion that "any property will appreciate" to a more selective approach in property investment [1][8]. Trend Analysis - Urban Disparity: There will be an increasing gap in property values between high-demand cities and those with declining populations. Core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu are expected to see stable or slightly rising prices, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to experience price declines. For instance, new home prices in Shanghai's core areas rose by 5.6% year-on-year in 2025, while properties in less populated areas may take years to sell due to oversupply [1][3]. - Shift to Improved Housing: The demand for larger, more comfortable homes is rising, with properties sized between 120-144 square meters becoming increasingly popular. In the first five months of 2025, these larger units accounted for 30% of transactions in 30 major cities. Additionally, buyers are prioritizing properties that can be delivered on time, leading to a rise in the sales of completed homes, which reached 35.6% in 2025, up by 4.8 percentage points [3][5]. - Increase in Affordable Housing: By 2026, a dual system of affordable and market-rate housing is expected to be more established, with 60% of families potentially able to access affordable housing options. This will alleviate financial pressure on first-time buyers, as affordable housing can be priced at 20% lower than market-rate homes in the same area [5][7]. - Supportive Policies: The government is likely to continue implementing supportive policies to stimulate reasonable housing demand, including potential interest rate cuts and increased availability of housing subsidies. This could lead to lower monthly mortgage payments for buyers, making homeownership more accessible [5][7]. Recommendations for Buyers - Focus on acquiring core assets in major cities rather than spreading investments across multiple lower-tier properties, as evidenced by a 20% increase in second-hand home transactions in major cities in early 2025 [7]. - Pay attention to the benefits of old community renovations, as the government has allocated 33.2 billion yuan for such projects, which could enhance property values in renovated areas [7]. - First-time buyers should act promptly if suitable properties arise, especially those eligible for affordable housing, while those looking to upgrade should compare options during favorable policy conditions [7]. - Abandon speculative investment strategies, as the market is shifting towards a "housing for living" approach rather than for profit [7][8].