年末最后一日，美联储创纪录放水，不到24小时，人民币大涨，压制不住了

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve injected a historical $74.6 billion into the market, breaking a record set two months prior, yet the dollar weakened instead of strengthening [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate surpassed 6.97, reaching a nearly 20-month high, while gold prices rose on the first trading day of the new year [1][3] - The market's reaction indicates structural funding pressures within the banking system, as financial institutions faced a market repurchase rate of 3.95% and turned to the Fed's "official pawnshop" for lower-cost funds at 3.75% [3] Group 2 - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a significant current account surplus of $489.8 billion and a goods trade surplus of $726.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - The digital RMB entered its 2.0 era on January 1, 2026, with major state-owned banks offering a 0.05% interest rate on real-name wallet balances, enhancing its savings functionality [5] - The optimization of the CIPS cross-border payment system, with new rules set to be implemented in February 2026, will ease access for foreign institutions, further boosting RMB usage [6] Group 3 - The gold market experienced a historic bull market in 2025, with international gold prices rising over 70% and silver prices increasing by approximately 150% [8] - Central banks globally have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually since 2022, making gold the second-largest reserve asset, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical risk concerns [8] - The Federal Reserve's cumulative rate cuts of 75 basis points in 2025 weakened the dollar's interest rate advantage, directly supporting gold price increases [8] Group 4 - The appreciation of the RMB positively impacted various industries, with the aviation sector benefiting from reduced fuel costs and aircraft leasing expenses, leading to a potential 5% profit increase for major airlines with every 1% RMB appreciation [9] - The paper industry, heavily reliant on imported pulp, could see an 8.8% profit increase with a 2% RMB appreciation [9] - Import-dependent sectors like coal, steel, and chemicals also benefit from lower import costs due to RMB appreciation, with significant savings reported by companies [9] Group 5 - The outbound tourism and high-end consumer markets have rebounded, with outbound travel bookings increasing by 37% week-on-week after the RMB's appreciation, and sales at duty-free shops in Sanya exceeding 420 million yuan during the New Year [11] - A significant portion of the Federal Reserve's $74.6 billion liquidity injection, amounting to $43.1 billion, was directed towards mortgage-backed securities (MBS), indicating short-term financing pressures for MBS holders [11] - Despite the liquidity injection, risk assets like Bitcoin showed muted responses, reflecting the complexity of the current economic cycle [11]