美国总统抓走委内瑞拉总统，对全球股市的影响（二）

Group 1 - The core event marks a significant shift in the global investment landscape, where U.S. domestic law is being used as a tool for international military actions against foreign leaders, challenging the principle of state sovereignty [1][2] - The new paradigm introduces three pillars: domestic law as a basis for military action, the judicial removal of regimes, and the transformation of resource control from market-based to judicial execution [2][3][4] Group 2 - The implications for global capital markets are profound, as the valuation of assets is being reassessed in light of potential risks associated with U.S. unilateral judicial actions [5][6] - The traditional assessment of sovereign credit risk is evolving to include the possibility of foreign leaders or key assets being targeted by U.S. legal actions, leading to a permanent increase in political risk premiums [6] - Supply chains are now viewed as "risk chains" if they involve countries that could be subject to unilateral judicial or military actions, necessitating a shift in investment strategies towards companies with secure supply chains [7] Group 3 - The credibility of fiat currencies as safe-haven assets is being undermined, as the U.S. can leverage its domestic law over international law, leading to structural cracks in the perceived safety of its currency and bonds [9] - The strategic position of gold as a non-sovereign value carrier is expected to be significantly strengthened, while interest in cryptocurrencies may rise as investors seek to avoid single sovereign judicial interventions [9] Group 4 - The future investment landscape is uncertain, with three potential scenarios emerging: the establishment of a new norm where domestic law governs international actions, a prolonged period of chaos and reconfiguration of alliances, or a backlash leading to the decline of U.S. hegemony [10][11][12] - Investors must adapt to new survival strategies, including conducting thorough geopolitical and legal due diligence, redefining asset classes, and shifting from trend-based trading to scenario planning [14][15][16]