美国老想着制裁中国，结果稀土直接涨价60倍，这回真把自己作死了

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the U.S. under President Trump aimed to curb China's economic growth but has backfired, with China leveraging its control over rare earth elements to gain an upper hand, leading to skyrocketing prices and a complex geopolitical struggle [1]. Group 1: Background and Initial Actions - The trade conflict began during Trump's second term, where tariffs were imposed on Chinese high-tech products and chips, prompting China to respond with export controls on seven key rare earth elements, requiring buyers to obtain licenses [3]. - The U.S. military's reliance on rare earth materials for over 80,000 components in weapon systems has raised alarms about potential production halts due to supply disruptions [3]. Group 2: Escalation of Controls - In October, the number of rare earth elements under Chinese export control expanded to twelve, including related equipment and technology, with a significant policy change in December that denied export licenses to entities linked to U.S. military companies [4]. - This tightening of controls has left the U.S. scrambling to find alternative sources of rare earths globally as its inventory dwindles [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Surge - European rare earth suppliers capitalized on the situation, raising prices of certain rare earths by as much as sixty times, forcing U.S. companies to purchase at inflated costs to maintain production [6]. - Major Chinese rare earth producers announced a 37% price increase in the fourth quarter, with some heavy rare earth categories potentially seeing price increases of up to five times [6]. Group 4: Trade Route Challenges - China's restrictions on transshipment trade have effectively closed off the last escape route for the U.S., as new requirements for detailed usage proof and customer lists have rendered previous workaround strategies ineffective [9]. Group 5: Domestic Industry Struggles - Despite efforts to boost domestic production, including a $400 million investment in a major U.S. rare earth mining company and high-priced government purchases, rebuilding the complete rare earth supply chain remains a daunting challenge [10]. - The U.S. Department of Energy's additional funding of $134 million for related research is insufficient to address the urgent needs of the domestic rare earth industry [10]. Group 6: Long-term Implications - The U.S. continues to face a significant gap between rare earth demand and domestic production, with ongoing efforts to collaborate with allies like Australia and Canada seen as risk diversification strategies rather than solutions [12]. - Projections indicate that even by 2026, the U.S. will still heavily depend on China for rare earth supplies, highlighting the long-term challenges ahead [12].