Is Rigetti Computing a Buy in 2026?

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 60% from its peak of $56 in October, indicating that the hype surrounding the stock may not be supported by fundamental improvements in the business [2][10]. Company Overview - Rigetti Computing is a quantum computing start-up with a current market cap of $7.8 billion and a stock price of $23.60, which has fluctuated between $5.95 and $58.15 over the past year [3]. - The company is focused on the hardware side of quantum computing, aiming to provide essential components for other enterprises to leverage this emerging technology [4][9]. Industry Context - Quantum computing is still largely theoretical, with significant advancements needed before it becomes commercially viable. Industry leaders like Alphabet and IBM estimate that practical quantum computers are still four to five years away [11]. - The potential of quantum computing lies in its ability to solve complex problems, which could lead to substantial shareholder value through applications in drug discovery, logistics, and more [4]. Financial Performance - Rigetti's third-quarter earnings report showed an 18% year-over-year revenue decline to $1.95 billion, with operating losses increasing to $20.5 billion, highlighting the challenges the company faces in covering its R&D expenses [10]. - The company's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 843, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 3.4, suggesting that the stock may still be overvalued [12]. Future Outlook - The timeline for quantum computing readiness is uncertain, with Rigetti likely not advancing faster than larger competitors, which raises questions about its ability to generate shareholder value in the near term [11][13]. - The company is positioned to manufacture its own chips in the U.S., which could provide political protection and opportunities similar to those of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in traditional semiconductors [6].