SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) 智通财经网·2026-01-03 23:29Core Viewpoint - Despite a slowdown in central bank gold purchases expected by 2025, speculative funds are driving gold prices higher, with short-term corrections influenced by sentiment and technical factors. The underlying support logic remains unchanged amid global stagflation and the monetization of U.S. deficits. Looking ahead to 2026, the lack of order continues to favor gold as a safe haven asset, especially as AI narratives evolve [1][2]. Historical Context of Gold Prices - Historical reference points for gold prices include the post-World War II era and the 1970s, where significant economic events led to substantial fluctuations in gold value. For instance, after the 1929 stock market crash, gold prices surged due to a banking crisis, and during the 1970s, gold prices increased dramatically from $35 to $850 per ounce [2][3]. - The first decade of the 21st century saw a new bull market for gold driven by events like the 9/11 attacks and subsequent economic crises. However, after 2011, gold entered a bear market until recent geopolitical tensions reignited interest [3][4]. Current Gold Market Dynamics - The current gold bull market has not shown significant signs of overheating. Since the onset of U.S. deficit monetization in 2008, gold prices have increased by 5.7 times, and by 2.4 times since the 2022 technical default on Russian reserves. This contrasts sharply with the 24-fold increase seen in the 1970s [4]. - The relationship between gold prices and U.S. debt levels remains positive, with projections indicating that U.S. federal debt will rise significantly by 2035, suggesting continued upward pressure on gold prices unless AI technology significantly improves economic efficiency [4][5]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank gold purchases are expected to slow but not end, with a notable increase in gold reserves among major geopolitical players over the past three years. The share of gold in global central bank reserves rose from 15% in Q1 2022 to a projected 54% by Q4 2024, indicating a strong demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty [6][7]. - Despite the increase, global central bank gold holdings remain below historical levels, suggesting further potential for growth in gold purchases [6][7]. Market Demand for Gold - Institutional investors view gold as a crucial hedge due to its low correlation with traditional assets. The recent high inflation environment has diminished the effectiveness of government bonds as a diversification tool, making alternative assets like gold increasingly necessary [8][9]. - The demand for gold from trading funds persists, driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the appeal of a "long AI + long gold" strategy as a dual bet on future economic conditions [9][10].