深读 | 生猪市场盘点：“旺季不旺”背后的行业激变

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market in 2025 is experiencing significant adjustments due to abundant supply and weak demand, leading to a decline in average prices and creating challenges for producers [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average price of pigs in 2025 is approximately 13.80 yuan/kg, significantly lower than in 2024, with prices fluctuating from around 16 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to below 11 yuan/kg by late October [2]. - The supply of pigs is robust, driven by a high number of breeding sows and increased production efficiency, resulting in actual pork supply exceeding market expectations [2][5]. - Demand for pork is weak, with traditional consumption peaks failing to stimulate demand, leading to a situation where price increases do not correspond with demand growth [2][6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The pig futures market reflects expectations of price declines, with significant fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics [3][7]. - Analysts predict that while supply pressures may persist in the first half of 2026, there could be marginal improvements in the second half due to potential reductions in breeding sow numbers and seasonal demand increases [6][7]. - The average price for pigs in 2026 is expected to range between 12 to 13 yuan/kg, with a potential for a price recovery later in the year [7]. Cost Management and Industry Restructuring - In response to declining prices, pig farming companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with leading firms achieving significant reductions in production costs [5][8]. - The cost of raising pigs for major companies has decreased, with examples such as Muyuan Foods reducing costs from approximately 13 yuan/kg to 11.3 yuan/kg [5]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards larger, more efficient operations, with smaller producers facing increasing pressure and potential exit from the market [5][8]. Risk Management Strategies - Producers are encouraged to adopt risk management tools such as futures and derivatives to mitigate price volatility and stabilize operations [9]. - The trading volume of pig futures in 2025 reached 17.99 million contracts, indicating increased market liquidity and the growing importance of futures in risk management for producers [9].