3 6 Ke·2026-01-04 01:54Core Insights - The storage market in 2025 is experiencing a dichotomy, with a surge in enterprise SSD demand leading to early QLC NAND capacity locking, while HDD supply crises reach a peak with delivery times exceeding 24 months, forcing some cloud vendors to sign long-term contracts for 2026 to secure supply [1] - China has achieved domestic production for CPUs, memory, and SSDs, but remains dependent on foreign technology for HDDs, despite a domestic HDD consumption nearing 60 billion yuan annually [1][3] HDD Market Dynamics - HDD demand has shifted significantly, with nearly 90% now coming from data centers, driven by the rise of AI applications that generate vast amounts of unstructured data [3] - The global capital expenditure for top cloud service providers is expected to grow by 61% in 2025, with 85% directed towards AI-specific data centers, further increasing HDD demand [3][4] Company Performance - Major HDD manufacturers, Western Digital and Seagate, reported nearly 30% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with gross margins reaching a ten-year high [4] - Both companies have raised their 2026 bit demand growth forecasts from approximately 20% to 23% or higher, with order visibility extending into early 2027 [4] Technological Advancements - Companies are competing to push single disk capacities to 30TB and beyond using next-generation technologies like HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording), which enhances HDD's total cost of ownership advantage [5] - The market's trust in HDDs is reinforced by concerns over the long-term reliability of SSDs in specific scenarios [5] Challenges in Domestic HDD Production - The complexity of HDD manufacturing, including the precision required for components like the read/write head, presents significant barriers to domestic production in China [7] - Core technologies and patents in the HDD sector are heavily dominated by a few global players, creating a challenging environment for domestic manufacturers [7][8] Historical Context of Domestic HDD Attempts - Past attempts at domestic HDD production in China faced challenges due to reliance on imported technology and a lack of core component design capabilities, leading to high failure rates and market rejection [9][10][11] - The consolidation of the global HDD market has resulted in a duopoly, making it difficult for new entrants to compete without established technology and market presence [11] Future Outlook - The ongoing AI trend highlights the strategic value of HDDs, but also underscores China's long-standing absence in this critical area [13] - The future of HDD production in China may not be viable in the short term, as established players have a significant technological lead, and the market demand for HDDs may decline as NAND flash production increases [13]