【热点解读·LPG】1月CP公布 涨幅超期

Core Insights - Saudi Aramco announced an increase in January CP prices for propane and butane, with propane at $525 per ton (up $30) and butane at $520 per ton (up $35) [1] - The estimated landed cost for propane is around 4700 RMB per ton, while butane is approximately 4662 RMB per ton [1] - Factors influencing CP price fluctuations include increased demand from North America and Asia, supply shortages in the Middle East, and geopolitical events affecting oil prices [1] Market Trends - From late October 2025, the international LPG market began to rebound, with CFR East China prices reaching $613 per ton by December 31, an increase of $87 per ton (16.47%) [3] - The initial market downturn was attributed to the US-China trade conflict, but subsequent negotiations led to improved market confidence and a focus on supply-demand fundamentals [3] - Supply constraints from the Middle East and adverse weather in the US have further tightened the market, with increased demand in Europe and the US due to winter conditions [3] Future Outlook - February CP prices are expected to decrease to around $515 per ton, a drop of approximately $10 from the previous month [5] - There are expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in February and March, with a potential increase in international supply and reduced domestic PDH operations due to losses [5]