A股:银行股,或许还是让人意想不到的“冷门股”!
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-04 02:34

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in A-shares is poised for a significant value recovery due to several key factors, including the strengthening of the RMB, supportive policies for long-term investments, prolonged market adjustments, low valuation levels, and the potential for overlooked opportunities in the sector [1][3][5][7]. Group 1: Currency and Economic Factors - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is a crucial catalyst, supported by a stable Chinese economic foundation and renewed global confidence in Chinese assets. This appreciation enhances the intrinsic value of bank stocks, as they hold substantial RMB-denominated assets [1]. Group 2: Policy Support - The People's Bank of China has encouraged long-term investments, implementing structural tools to guide institutional funds towards undervalued, high-dividend blue-chip stocks. Banks, with their high dividend yields and stable cash flows, align well with the preferences of these long-term investors [3]. Group 3: Market Adjustments - The banking sector has experienced a prolonged adjustment period since June 2025, leading to a significant reduction in market interest and a decline in stock prices. This phase of neglect often presents opportunities for reversal, as many bank stocks have reached multi-year lows with diminished selling pressure [3]. Group 4: Valuation Metrics - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for A-share banks is currently below 6 times, with some quality stocks even below 5 times. In contrast, U.S. counterparts like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have valuations exceeding 10 times, indicating a severe undervaluation of A-share banks. Additionally, the average dividend yield remains above 5%, significantly higher than the yield on 10-year government bonds [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Opportunities - The current low trading volume and lack of attention towards bank stocks suggest that they may be at a cyclical turning point. Historical trends indicate that when a mainstream sector is collectively ignored, it often signals an impending recovery. The banking sector, contributing nearly one-third of net profits among A-share listed companies while only accounting for about 10% of total market capitalization, indicates a potential mismatch in market valuation [7].