BlueberryMarkets：费城联储主席称通胀若持续缓和2026年或可降息

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Anna Paulsen, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to balance inflation, employment, and economic growth in its monetary policy approach [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Paulsen anticipates a gradual easing of inflation and stabilization of the labor market, projecting an economic growth rate of around 2% by 2026 [3]. - The median forecast among policymakers suggests a potential interest rate cut of only 0.25 percentage points in 2026, while market expectations are more aggressive [3]. - The current monetary policy is viewed as "slightly tight," which helps maintain downward pressure on inflation, with expectations for inflation to gradually return to the 2% target [4]. Group 2: Labor Market Assessment - The labor market is experiencing high risks, with demand slowing faster than the reduction in supply, although unemployment insurance claims have stabilized [3]. - The assessment reflects the resilience of the job market, indicating that it has not collapsed, but adjustments in policy need to be carefully considered [3]. Group 3: Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve is inclined towards gradual policy adjustments, with a focus on ensuring controlled inflation while supporting stable economic growth [5]. - There is a noted complexity in interpreting economic conditions due to the recent federal government shutdown affecting data collection [4]. - The credibility of the central bank is crucial in managing inflation expectations, with past inflation experiences not having a lasting impact on long-term expectations [4].