美联储对2026 年前景的分歧，对比特币和加密市场意味着什么

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's influence on the cryptocurrency market is significant and expected to continue until 2026 due to policy maker disagreements [2] - The Fed implemented three rate cuts in 2025, with the most recent cut on December 10, bringing rates to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [2] - Despite the high rates, only one additional rate cut is anticipated in 2026, reflecting uncertainty in economic indicators such as labor market data and inflation trends [2][4] Group 2 - The next Fed meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, 2026, which may set the tone for the first quarter [4] - Investor predictions show a 20% probability of a 25 basis point cut in January, increasing to 45% for the March meeting [4] - The December dot plot indicates significant divergence among policymakers regarding rate predictions for 2026, with equal numbers expecting zero, one, or two cuts [4][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the Fed's internal divisions are notable, with 12 out of 19 policymakers expecting at least one more cut next year [6] - The baseline scenario anticipates one rate cut in the first quarter, which could enhance liquidity and benefit cryptocurrency inflows [7] - In a bullish scenario, if inflation decreases and unemployment rises, the Fed may cut rates twice, boosting demand for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies [7] Group 4 - The cautious approach of the Fed has dampened the enthusiasm of cryptocurrency traders, despite some signs of easing [8] - A new Fed chair may alter the overall rate policy stance and the attitude towards risk assets like cryptocurrencies [8] - When rates decline, investors typically seek high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, leading to increased demand and upward price pressure [9]