人民币一夜破7背后：美国收割计划破产，中国藏了三张底牌！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting the failure of the US's three-year plan to exploit emerging markets through aggressive monetary policy, and China's strategic responses that led to this reversal [1][3][8]. Group 1: Currency Movements - On December 25, 2025, the offshore yuan broke the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore yuan surpassed 7.01, marking a significant recovery from a low of 7.40 in April [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle in December 2025 led to a nearly 10% drop in the US dollar index, which contributed to the yuan's appreciation [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A "settlement rush" occurred as Chinese export companies, previously holding onto US dollars due to depreciation fears, began converting their dollars to yuan following the Fed's rate cuts, creating a positive feedback loop of currency appreciation [5][12]. - The divergence in global monetary policies, with the Fed cutting rates while the Bank of Japan raised rates, shifted capital flows away from the dollar and yen, favoring Chinese assets [5][10]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - China's capital account management acted as a firewall against speculative attacks, preventing large-scale short-selling that occurred in other emerging markets [8][10]. - The proactive decision to deflate the real estate bubble helped stabilize the economy, allowing Chinese assets to remain resilient during the dollar's aggressive rise [10][12]. - China's manufacturing capabilities, particularly in technology sectors like lithium batteries, have positioned it favorably in global markets, driving demand for the yuan [12][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The yuan's future exchange rate will be influenced by complex factors, with predictions suggesting a range between 6.8 and 7.1, rather than a straightforward appreciation [18][20]. - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain a stable yuan at a reasonable level to balance capital outflows and support export competitiveness [20].