2025年四季度北京甲级写字楼空置率再回落，机构预警2026年末空置率攀升

Core Insights - The real estate industry in 2025 is still undergoing a deep adjustment cycle, with low price fluctuations and weak effective demand remaining unresolved [2] - The Beijing Grade A office market shows signs of recovery, with the vacancy rate decreasing to 19.2% by the end of Q4, a year-on-year decline of 1.5 percentage points [3][4] - The market recovery is primarily driven by the concentration of new productive forces in the Zhongguancun area, which has become a core engine for the revival of the Beijing office market [4] Market Performance - The net absorption of Beijing Grade A office space reached approximately 83,000 square meters in Q4, contributing to an annual net absorption of 330,000 square meters, indicating a sustained demand [3] - The new supply of Grade A office space in Beijing for 2025 is limited to 188,000 square meters, which has helped stabilize the market [3] - The effective rental rate for Grade A offices decreased to 222 RMB/month/square meter, a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous year [3] Regional Highlights - The Zhongguancun area recorded a net absorption of over 176,000 square meters in 2025, accounting for 53% of the city's total, marking a peak in nearly 20 years [4] - High-tech manufacturing industries showed significant growth, with an increase of 9.2% in value-added output from January to November [4] Future Outlook - The Beijing office market is expected to face pressure again in 2026, with over 700,000 square meters of new supply anticipated, which may lead to an increase in the vacancy rate [9] - The market's effective demand remains insufficient, with many companies still facing operational challenges, leading to a cautious approach towards office expansion [7] - The competition in the office market is intensifying, particularly in non-core areas, while the core regions are experiencing a significant decline in rental prices [6]