Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-04 06:56Core Insights - Elon Musk has bet Tesla's future and personal wealth on the ambitious vision of the humanoid robot "Optimus," claiming it could generate "unlimited" revenue and become "the biggest product ever" [1] - However, there is a significant gap between Musk's vision and the current reality, as Optimus often relies on remote control by engineers and faces severe technical challenges in simulating human dexterity [1][3] Group 1: Current Challenges and Technical Limitations - During recent demonstrations, Optimus robots were not fully autonomous, with some interactions being remotely controlled by engineers wearing motion capture suits [1][3] - The project is still heavily dependent on human assistance, with engineers required to monitor and operate the robots in real-time, indicating limitations in autonomous capabilities [3] - Experts highlight that creating robotic hands with human-like dexterity involves challenges beyond just mechanical structure, including control systems and environmental perception [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Shift and Market Position - Tesla's strategic shift towards Robotaxi and humanoid robots comes as its core automotive business faces pressure, with a reported 9% decline in annual vehicle sales for 2025 and a 16% drop in Q4 [2] - Musk's new compensation plan aims for Tesla's market value to reach $8.5 trillion in 10 years, with a target of selling at least 1 million robots [2][6] - Despite long-term interest in the robotics industry, there are internal disagreements regarding the practicality of humanoid robots compared to specialized automation equipment [2][4] Group 3: Market Valuation and Analyst Perspectives - Analysts are cautious about the valuation of Tesla's robotics ambitions, with some excluding Optimus from their financial models due to the nascent stage of the industry [6] - Morgan Stanley's analyst predicts the global humanoid robot industry could reach $7.5 trillion by 2050, suggesting significant revenue potential for Tesla if it captures market share [6] - ARK Invest, despite forecasting a rise in Tesla's stock price, has not included Optimus in its 2029 financial model, citing the need for more time for commercialization [6] Group 4: Future Development and Commercialization - Tesla has postponed the initial timeline for deploying Optimus in its factories and is currently developing a third generation of the robot [7] - Musk markets Optimus as a "household helper," akin to characters from "Star Wars," but substantial breakthroughs in autonomy and practical engineering are necessary for profitability [7]