百利好丨金价冰火双重奏，2026开局反转

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility at the start of 2026, with initial declines followed by a surge in demand due to geopolitical tensions, leading to expectations of a gap up in prices on the following trading day [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price Decline - The decline in gold prices at the beginning of 2026 was driven by three main factors: a strengthening US dollar, a decrease in core inflation to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and better-than-expected employment data, which reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [3]. - Global market risk sentiment improved, with Eurozone manufacturing data returning to expansion and signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy, leading some investors to shift funds from gold to riskier assets like stocks [3]. - Profit-taking by investors after a more than 10% increase in gold prices in Q4 2025 contributed to short-term selling pressure [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Events as Catalysts - Recent geopolitical events have heightened market tensions, typically leading to increased investment in gold as a safe-haven asset, especially if the events involve resource-rich countries, which can also affect inflation expectations through energy prices [4]. - Such events can also impact market confidence in the US dollar, providing indirect support for gold prices [4]. - The occurrence of these events during market closures led to expectations of a gap up in gold prices when trading resumed, with future price movements dependent on the clarity of the geopolitical situation [4]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Gold Price Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are expected to be influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, with potential upward movement towards previous highs of $4,550 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices may exceed 1,400 yuan per gram [5]. - If geopolitical tensions ease, the market focus may shift back to fundamentals, potentially leading to a decline towards the $4,300 support level [5]. - Long-term support for gold prices remains strong, with high demand from central banks expected to continue, and predictions suggest an average monthly purchase of several dozen tons in 2026 [6]. - The overall direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy remains conducive to gold, as further economic weakness may lead to more accommodative monetary policies, reducing the cost of holding gold [6]. - From an asset allocation perspective, there is still room for increased gold holdings in investment portfolios, which could serve as a long-term driver for gold prices [6].