大宗盘点：碳酸锂翻倍的这一年

Core Insights - The lithium carbonate market experienced a dramatic "V-shaped" price reversal in 2025, starting at 77,000 yuan/ton, dropping to around 60,000 yuan/ton by mid-year, and ultimately surging to 130,000 yuan/ton by year-end, doubling from its lowest point [1][4][10] Price Dynamics - At the beginning of 2025, the market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was around 70,000 yuan/ton, but faced downward pressure due to high social inventory exceeding 100,000 tons and resistance from downstream buyers [2][3] - By late June, prices hit a low of 59,000 to 61,000 yuan/ton, with futures contracts dipping to 58,400 yuan/ton, marking a critical turning point for the market [2][3] Supply and Demand Factors - The price drop below the cash cost of many lithium extraction projects led to widespread industry losses, prompting supply-side disruptions such as production upgrades and stricter regulatory oversight in key mining regions [3][5] - The second half of the year saw a confirmed upward trend in prices, driven by significant demand growth in the energy storage market, which outpaced expectations and shifted the market from surplus to shortage [4][6] Market Sentiment and Behavior - The transition from a pessimistic outlook on oversupply to a bullish sentiment on supply constraints fueled speculative buying in the futures market, leading to a rapid increase in prices [4][6][7] - The behavior of midstream material manufacturers shifted from inventory reduction to proactive stockpiling in anticipation of potential raw material shortages [6][7] Industry Impact - The price recovery has significantly improved profitability for upstream companies with low-cost resources, while high-cost producers continue to struggle [8] - The competitive landscape has shifted, with low-cost lithium extraction companies showing a strong willingness to expand, while high-cost producers remain cautious [8] Future Outlook - The lithium carbonate market is expected to enter a "tight balance, high elasticity" phase in 2026, characterized by rising price floors and increased volatility [9] - Key variables influencing the market will include the elasticity and uncertainty of supply growth, profound changes in demand structure, and the reallocation of profits within the industry [9]