财经随笔记：黄金走势推演与后市机会分析（2026.1.4）

Group 1 - The core geopolitical event is the deterioration of the situation in Venezuela, with the U.S. launching military strikes and declaring a national emergency, which may lead to short-term oil price increases due to supply disruption risks [2] - The commodity market outlook indicates both short-term pressure and long-term bullish sentiment for gold and silver, with significant sell-offs expected in the short term but a bullish forecast for gold prices reaching $4,900 per ounce in the long term [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty is heightened, with key speeches from FOMC members expected to influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with key resistance and support levels identified, including a potential high at 4,550 and critical support at 4,274 [5][11] - The current market structure suggests that if gold fails to break previous highs, it may continue to experience downward pressure, indicating a need to monitor the ongoing adjustment phase [9] - Key price levels to watch include support around 4,300 and 4,274, as well as resistance at 4,400-4,405, which will be crucial for determining future market direction [11]