大会定调，明年房价上涨已成定局？今明两年，该买房还是存钱？

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of the personal housing capital gains tax from 5% to 3% is a significant move aimed at revitalizing the real estate market, indicating potential price increases in the near future [1][3]. Policy Changes - The new tax policy, effective from January 1, 2026, is a response to the declining real estate market and local government financial pressures, as many regions face reduced land revenue and economic challenges [3][5]. - Key changes include the reduction of the tax rate from 5% to 3% and the elimination of previous restrictions aimed at curbing speculation, such as the differentiation between ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties [7][10]. Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is currently in a deadlock, with first-time buyers unable to afford down payments and existing homeowners deterred by high taxes from selling their properties [5][21]. - The tax reduction is expected to lower transaction costs significantly, making it easier for buyers to enter the market and for existing homeowners to sell their properties [17][19]. Future Policy Directions - The government plans to implement further measures to stabilize the real estate market, including promoting the conversion of existing properties into affordable housing and enhancing the supply of quality housing [12][15]. - Financial policies such as mortgage interest subsidies and increased loan limits are anticipated to follow, aimed at reducing the financial burden on homebuyers and encouraging a shift from pre-sale to actual sale models [15][24]. Market Impact - The tax reduction is projected to enhance liquidity in the second-hand housing market, benefiting buyers, sellers, and real estate companies alike [19][22]. - The overall demand for housing remains strong, with significant potential for growth driven by urban population increases and improving living standards [24][26].