相聚资本总经理梁辉：2026看好AI、大宗商品、出口三大主线

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's assets experienced a strong market rally driven by technological breakthroughs, industry momentum, capital inflows, and increased risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 18% for its best annual performance in nearly six years [1] Group 1: Market Outlook for 2026 - The macro environment in 2026 is expected to remain overall accommodative, with A-shares focusing on structural opportunities, particularly in companies with long-term value enhancement capabilities [1][2] - The overall return for A-shares in 2026 is projected to be around 10%, with a potential decrease in contribution from valuation to earnings compared to 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Investment Themes - Three main investment themes from 2025 are expected to continue into 2026: AI, commodities, and exports [2] - AI investments are entering a "prosperity investment" phase, with expected high growth rates of 40% to 50% for the coming year, although current stock prices may reflect these expectations [2][3] - The outlook for copper is positive due to increased demand from AI and renewable energy sectors, making it a key conductor with limited substitutes [3] Group 3: Export Sector Insights - The export sector is anticipated to show a structural upward trend driven by the fundamental improvement in China's manufacturing competitiveness and ongoing international expansion of enterprises [3] - Potential risks include tariff barriers from target export countries and excessive competition among domestic companies [3] Group 4: Portfolio Management Strategy - The investment strategy has shifted towards a balanced style and stock selection, with a diversified portfolio including commodities, growth stocks, traditional industries, and overseas sectors [4][5] - The multi-asset absolute return quantitative strategy launched by the company aims for sustainable, stable, and low-volatility absolute returns, utilizing low correlation among assets to enhance risk-adjusted returns [6] Group 5: Expected Returns and Market Dynamics - Overall returns from multi-asset multi-strategy combinations may slightly decrease compared to 2025, but structural configurations can still yield returns [6] - The bond market is expected to provide slight positive returns as the economy recovers, while commodities with tight supply-demand dynamics may present opportunities [6]