国金证券：躁动与变化，维持做多思路

Group 1: Market Overview - Global risk assets have maintained a steady upward trend in a low volatility environment, while commodity prices have risen with increased volatility [1][7] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown particularly strong performance, leading among major global indices, driven by the spillover of US dollar liquidity and industrial catalysts [1][7] - High volatility in asset prices has been observed in the commodity market, indicating a fragile low inventory environment [1][7] Group 2: Long-term Perspective - Industrial metal values relative to US financial assets and broad money supply are at a 20-year low, indicating that physical assets are undervalued [8] - Future demand shocks from industrial changes and supply-side trade policy shifts, combined with low inventory and monetary easing, may amplify asset price volatility [8] - AI investment and the global manufacturing cycle recovery are key drivers for commodity markets in the medium term [8] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - The latest manufacturing PMI for December exceeded expectations, indicating positive changes in the economic fundamentals [9] - Production has shown an unseasonal increase, with improvements in production, procurement, and business expectations, alongside a rise in inventory indices [9] - New domestic demand expansion policies are being implemented, including a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods and a significant investment plan of approximately 295 billion yuan to stabilize investment [9] Group 4: Seasonal Market Trends - Historical data shows a clear seasonal effect in market performance at year-end, with December typically favoring large-cap value stocks [11] - The current market rebound began in late November, coinciding with a downward trend in the US dollar index, aligning with the recovery of global risk assets [11] - The "spring rally" may already be underway, with high trading volumes in popular sectors reflecting increased risk appetite [11] Group 5: Changing Market Dynamics - The internal driving logic of the market is changing, with domestic economic data and early policy implementations acting as new catalysts [12] - The reliance on marginal improvements in overseas liquidity may not be sustainable, leading to a focus on assets with clearer fundamental signals and lower volatility [12] - Recommended investment areas include industrial resource products aligned with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery [12][5]