信达证券：春季行情可能缓步启动

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to end December 2025 with an "11 consecutive days of gains," primarily benefiting from a recovery in risk appetite and increased volume in ETFs, particularly the CSI A500 [1][5] - The Hong Kong stock market showed strength during the New Year holiday, attributed to southbound capital inflows, RMB appreciation, and intensive catalysts in the semiconductor industry, which may positively influence A-shares after the New Year [1][5] - The liquidity environment before the Spring Festival is likely to remain favorable, with the market expected to continue its upward trend, although some volatility may occur in January [1][5] Group 2 - Seasonal trends suggest that February has the highest probability of market gains, with historical data from 2008 to 2025 indicating that February, July, and November are the months with the highest likelihood of market increases, often coinciding with policy changes [2][6] - In years where the Spring Festival occurs later, the market may perform better before the holiday compared to after, contrasting with earlier years where pre-holiday performance tends to be weaker [3][7] - Historical data shows that significant fluctuations in Q1 are often influenced by major economic turning points or substantial changes in household financing, with examples from various years illustrating the impact of policy and economic conditions on market performance [3][7]