金银 开门红！“大多头”难以为继？ | 破译金属新主线

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching near historical highs before a sharp decline, driven by ongoing tensions between overseas regulators and bullish investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On Monday, COMEX silver futures prices approached $84 per ounce, followed by a drastic drop exceeding 10% in a single day [1] - The recent price surge and subsequent decline are attributed to increased margin requirements imposed by overseas exchanges, which pressured bullish positions and led to profit-taking [1] - The rapid rebound in silver prices on the first trading day of 2026 is linked to a persistent structural "shortage" in the international market, with low global deliverable silver inventory levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Global silver production is not expected to see significant growth by 2025, while demand is projected to surge, particularly due to the rise of AI hardware, solar energy, and electric vehicles [2] - 2025 marks the fifth consecutive year of silver supply shortages, with a projected supply gap exceeding 2,900 tons in 2026 [2] - The fundamental issue behind the supply-demand mismatch is the inability to quickly increase silver supply, despite high demand [2] Group 3: Inventory and Market Sentiment - As of December 31, 2025, silver inventories show a tightening trend, with domestic stocks decreasing and strong downstream demand persisting [3] - COMEX silver futures inventory is approximately 451 million ounces, but the registered warehouse receipts are at historically low levels, indicating tight liquidity for futures delivery [3] - The outlook for the silver market remains cautiously optimistic for Q1 2026, with the recent price drop viewed as a technical correction rather than the end of a bull market [3]