美国费城联储主席保尔森（2026年FOMC票委）：在经济形势良好情况下，美联储今年晚些时候可能再次降息。关税是通胀持续高于目标的关键因素。就业市场状况支撑了美联储的宽松行动。经济基准前景“相当良性”。预计通胀将有所缓和，就业市场将趋于稳定，GDP增速将在2%左右。

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve may consider another interest rate cut later this year if the economic conditions remain favorable [1] - Tariffs are identified as a key factor contributing to inflation remaining above target levels [1] - The employment market conditions support the Federal Reserve's accommodative actions [1] Group 2 - The economic baseline outlook is described as "quite benign" [1] - Inflation is expected to ease, the employment market is projected to stabilize, and GDP growth is anticipated to be around 2% [1]