阿里，瘦身

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is strategically focusing on AI and high-growth sectors by preparing for IPOs of four companies, which are expected to yield significant returns on investment [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Developments - Four companies backed by Alibaba are set to go public: Changxin Technology, Hanbo Semiconductor, MiniMax, and Zhipu Huazhang, covering key areas such as storage chips, computing chips, and large models [1]. - Changxin Technology's market capitalization is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan, with Alibaba holding nearly 5% of the shares [1]. - MiniMax's estimated market value at IPO is around 50 billion Hong Kong dollars, with Alibaba owning 13.66% prior to the IPO [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Alibaba's recent divestments include reducing stakes in Huayi Brothers and Meikailong to below 5%, alongside a 3% stake reduction in Aojie Technology, indicating a shift towards AI and high-growth businesses [2]. - The company is optimizing its asset allocation by liquidating lower-value investments and reallocating funds to AI, which is seen as a core future focus [2][4]. Group 3: Financial Health and Cash Flow - The adjusted EBITDA and capital expenditure difference indicates a declining cash flow health, with figures of 171.71 billion, 70.59 billion, and -142.45 billion yuan over three quarters in 2025 [3]. - Alibaba has announced a substantial capital expenditure plan of 380 billion yuan, which may lead to a prolonged state of cash flow tightness [3]. Group 4: Shareholding Adjustments - Alibaba has reduced holdings in nearly half of its 31 listed companies, particularly in retail and healthcare sectors, aligning with its strategy to focus on online retail and AI [4]. - The estimated value of Alibaba's remaining listed company shares exceeds 60 billion yuan, with a continued trend of divestment expected as the company concentrates on core business areas [4]. Group 5: Valuation Efficiency - The shift in asset allocation from static equity investments to dynamic AI investments is expected to enhance Alibaba's overall market valuation [6][7]. - The transition from a price-to-book (PB) valuation model to price-to-earnings (PE) or price-to-sales (PS) models is anticipated as funds are redirected towards AI initiatives [6]. - The performance of U.S. tech giants in AI capital expenditure serves as a benchmark for Alibaba, which has seen significant stock price increases following announcements of substantial AI investments [6][7].