管涛：人民币汇率升值加快，但结汇潮仍缺乏数据支持｜立方大家谈

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China showed signs of stability in November 2025, with the RMB appreciating against the USD, while market expectations remained stable despite fluctuations in the USD index and interest rate predictions from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Exchange Rate Trends - In November, the USD index fell by 0.3% to 99.4, while the RMB appreciated, with the onshore spot rate rising by 341 basis points to 7.0794, marking a new high since mid-October 2024 [1] - The RMB's appreciation trend continued, with the average spot exchange rate increasing for the ninth consecutive month, up 0.9%, the highest in four months [2] - The RMB multilateral exchange rate index continued to rise, although the rate of increase slowed compared to previous months [3] Cross-Border Capital Flows - There was a significant decrease in the net inflow of cross-border capital, with the surplus from bank foreign exchange payments dropping from $51.1 billion to $17.8 billion [9] - The trade surplus in goods increased to $111.7 billion, the third highest on record, despite a widening gap with foreign exchange payment surpluses [9] - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds continued to decline, with a reduction of 116.7 billion RMB, marking the seventh consecutive month of decrease [10] Market Participation and Sentiment - Foreign investors showed a cautious approach towards the Chinese stock market, with net outflows reaching $6.9 billion in November, indicating a lack of confidence [10][11] - Despite the cautious sentiment, international institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China, suggesting potential future inflows into the market [11] Currency Management and Corporate Behavior - Companies have increasingly utilized foreign exchange derivatives to manage currency risk, with the scale reaching $1.75 trillion, and the hedging ratio rising to 30.2%, a historical high [2] - The willingness of market participants to convert currencies remains weak, with foreign exchange deposits reaching a record high of $879.4 billion [19] Policy and Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, reflecting a shift in policy focus towards stability [29] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested that China's low inflation relative to trading partners has led to a significant depreciation of the real exchange rate, recommending more expansive macroeconomic policies [28]