万亿IPO神话即将在2026上演，但“小独角兽们”已经崩盘

Group 1 - The capital market in 2025 experienced a stark contrast between the decline of newly listed tech companies and the rise of established giants, indicating a significant market polarization [1][2] - Over two-thirds of tech companies that went public in 2025 saw their stock prices fall below their IPO prices, with a median decline of 9%, underperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose nearly 18% during the same period [3][6] - Notable exceptions like Circle, a stablecoin issuer, managed to maintain gains post-IPO, highlighting the challenges faced by many other tech startups [3][6] Group 2 - The performance of unicorns like Figma and Klarna was disappointing, with significant market value losses attributed to increased competition and a rejection of the "growth at all costs" model by investors [3][15] - The average market capitalization of smaller tech companies is around $8.3 billion, facing higher valuation hurdles and liquidity issues, making it difficult to attract sustained interest from index funds and retail investors [6][30] - The IPO landscape is characterized by a "trust gap," where founders and venture capitalists are reluctant to lower valuations, while public investors are increasingly sensitive to profitability prospects [6][30] Group 3 - The 2025 IPO recovery is still far from reaching pre-2022 levels, with software and AI IPOs significantly below the peak years of 2019-2021 [7][9] - The "40 Rule" for assessing software company health has become ineffective, as companies like Navan, despite showing revenue growth, are penalized for poor profitability metrics [11][30] - The market is witnessing a severe backlog of IPO candidates, with many companies postponing their plans due to unfavorable market conditions [33] Group 4 - Major players like SpaceX and OpenAI are preparing for record-breaking IPOs, with SpaceX targeting over $30 billion in funding and a valuation of $1.5 trillion, potentially setting a new record for the largest IPO [22][24] - OpenAI is also planning a significant IPO, aiming for a valuation of $1 trillion and seeking to raise at least $60 billion, reflecting the competitive landscape in AI technology [25][27] - The emergence of these tech giants contrasts sharply with the struggles of many smaller firms, indicating a potential shift in investor focus towards established leaders in the tech sector [28][30] Group 5 - The IPO market is transitioning from a phase of "valuation winter" to cautious optimism, driven by macroeconomic improvements and the commercialization of AI technology [30][32] - The entry barriers for new IPO candidates have significantly increased, with expectations for companies to demonstrate substantial recurring revenue and strong unit economics [33] - The overall sentiment for IPOs in 2026 will heavily depend on the stability of monetary policy and geopolitical conditions, which will influence market dynamics [33]